A Novel Age-Based Nomogram as the Best Predictor for Long-Term Overall Survival in Head and Neck Mucosa-Associated Lymphoid Tissue Lymphoma.

Abstract

Objectives: Head and neck mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma, a rare subtype of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, has received limited attention regarding its prognosis. This study aimed to illuminate the clinical characteristics and identify prognostic factors for head and neck MALT lymphoma, intending to develop an accessible tool for clinicians to predict long-term survival probabilities and inform therapeutic strategies.

Methods: This multicentre retrospective study enrolled 424 head and neck MALT lymphoma patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-Cox regression analysis identified independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), leading to the development of an age-based nomogram predicting OS probabilities at 5, 10, and 15 years. Evaluation included time-dependent receiver operating curve (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.

Results: Multivariate Cox analysis highlighted age exceeding 65 years [hazards ratio (HR): 2.97, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.94-4.57; P < 0.001] and unmarried status (HR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.07-2.33, P = 0.023) as significantly associated with shorter OS, while black race correlated with longer OS (HR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.09-0.69, P = 0.007). The age-based nomogram, integrating these factors, demonstrated efficacy in predicting 5-year [area under the curve (AUC): 0.640] and 10-year OS (AUC: 0.705), with an impressive AUC of 0.842 for the 15-year OS probability in the training cohort. Decision curve analysis affirmed the nomogram's clinical utility, surpassing individual factors. Consistent results were observed in validation cohorts.

Conclusion: Our study provides crucial insights into head and neck MALT lymphoma, filling gaps in understanding its clinical landscape. The validated age-based nomogram serves as a practical tool for clinicians, offering enhanced prognostic precision and guiding personalized treatment strategies in this understudied lymphoma subtype.