Do women accurately predict their odds of having a child following planned oocyte cryopreservation?

Abstract

Graphical abstract:

Abstract: Planned oocyte cryopreservation (POC) has become widely available, allowing women to circumvent age-related fertility decline. The aim of our study was to examine whether women who have undergone POC were able to correctly predict the chance of having a child with their cryopreserved oocytes. We conducted a telephone survey with 260 women who underwent POC at our center between January 2017 and December 2023. Participants were asked to estimate their chance of having at least one live birth in case they would use their cryopreserved oocytes. For each participant, we also calculated the chance of achieving at least one live birth based on her age at the last oocyte retrieval and the number of cryopreserved oocytes, according to a model published by Goldman and colleagues in 2017. The median estimated probability of achieving a live birth was 50%, while the median calculated probability was 75% (P < 0.001). Only 28.1% of the participants accurately estimated their chances. In conclusion, a large percentage of women undergoing POC underestimate the probability of achieving a live birth if they use their cryopreserved oocytes. Improved counseling is essential to provide comprehensive information about the probability of live birth and prevent women from undergoing unnecessary treatments.

Lay summary: More and more women choose to freeze eggs in order to circumvent age-related fertility decline. In this study, we asked women to estimate their chance of having a child if they used their frozen eggs in the future. For each patient, the chance was also calculated based on a model taking into account the number of eggs she had frozen and her age during egg freezing. Surprisingly, women estimated their chance of having a child as being lower than it actually is. Our results highlight the importance of providing patients with clear information about treatment success to prevent them from undergoing unnecessary additional treatments.