Actionable policy responses to disaster threats – A comparative study on resilience and sustainability in global cities

Abstract

This paper examines the hypothesis that preventive urban policy responses to disaster threats are likely to play a positive role in the resilient development of cities, not only by strengthening disaster mitigation and response-related adjustment mechanisms, but also by enhancing sustainability and liveability in urban areas. The study aims to test whether pressing disaster challenges for large cities prompt responses that lead to more positive outcomes than in a ‘without situation’. We argue that the ‘Blessing in Disguise’ (BiD) hypothesis applies also to potential threats, and not just to actual disasters. In our empirical study, the development trajectories of 40 global cities – represented by the comprehensive GPCI database – are addressed from the perspective of six distinct main categories of performance variables (Economy, R&D, Liveability, Cultural Interaction, Accessibility, and Environment). The research seeks to explore the linkages between the various GPCI performance indicators and urban GDP at risk using correlation and multiple regression tools, while the systemic interactions among all variables are subsequently analysed by means of Social Network Analysis. The results highlight that the larger and poorer cities appear to be more threatened by natural disasters, while, for the wealthiest cities, manmade disasters are a more significant threat. Manmade threats also appear to be more linked to the main GPCI category scores; in particular, Economy, Cultural Interaction and, especially, R&D appear to be positively correlated with the magnitude of urban threats, while Liveability and Environment are less prominently (or negatively) influenced. Therefore, urban innovative policy response – in a broad sense – is an important driver of proactive resilience and positive sustainability outcomes. In conclusion, the governance of global cities should organically and strategically integrate resilience, sustainability and liveability as a common guide for short- and long-term urban development, by adopting targeted policies that anticipate and manage urban threats, from both a structural and non-structural perspective, so as to develop adaptive urban morphological and land-use functions.