Modelling Urbanisation in Cities in the Global South: A Review of Progress and Framework for the Future

IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY
Felix S. K. Agyemang, Mehebub Sahana
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Abstract

Over the past several decades, urbanisation has been a key feature of cities in the Global South, and many scholars have used urban expansion models as tools to not only study this phenomenon, but to also predict likely evolution of cities in the region. Yet, there is limited knowledge of how urbanisation in the Global South has been modelled. In this study, we examine how urbanisation has been modelled in cities in the Global South, highlighting progress made and identifying key emerging issues for future research. Based on a review of 149 articles, we find an increasing preference for hybrid models that combine simple modelling approaches with more complex deep learning approaches. However, the advantages of hybrid approaches over stand-alone models in terms of prediction power has not been strongly established in the literature. We also find that most of the applications do not directly account for the social processes that generate the urban expansion patterns we observe in the region. As a result, the validation of most models has been limited to the ‘where’ (locations) and ‘when’ (time) and not the ‘who’ (socio-economic characteristics of occupants of location at a given point in time). The application of the models is highly localised as most studies do not model more than one city. This review could serve as a foundation for improving how urbanisation is modelled in the Global South.

Abstract Image

全球南方城市的城市化建模:对进展和未来框架的回顾
在过去的几十年里,城市化一直是全球南方城市的一个关键特征,许多学者使用城市扩张模型作为工具,不仅研究这一现象,而且还预测该地区城市可能的演变。然而,对于全球南方国家的城市化是如何建模的,我们了解有限。在本研究中,我们研究了全球南方城市的城市化模式,强调了取得的进展,并确定了未来研究的关键新问题。基于对149篇文章的回顾,我们发现越来越多的人倾向于将简单建模方法与更复杂的深度学习方法相结合的混合模型。然而,混合方法在预测能力方面优于独立模型的优势在文献中尚未得到强有力的证实。我们还发现,大多数应用程序并不能直接解释产生我们在该地区观察到的城市扩张模式的社会过程。因此,大多数模型的验证仅限于“在哪里”(地点)和“何时”(时间),而不是“谁”(在给定时间点位置居住者的社会经济特征)。这些模型的应用是高度局部化的,因为大多数研究只对一个以上的城市进行建模。这一审查可以作为改善全球发展中国家城市化模式的基础。
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来源期刊
Geography Compass
Geography Compass GEOGRAPHY-
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
6.50%
发文量
61
期刊介绍: Unique in its range, Geography Compass is an online-only journal publishing original, peer-reviewed surveys of current research from across the entire discipline. Geography Compass publishes state-of-the-art reviews, supported by a comprehensive bibliography and accessible to an international readership. Geography Compass is aimed at senior undergraduates, postgraduates and academics, and will provide a unique reference tool for researching essays, preparing lectures, writing a research proposal, or just keeping up with new developments in a specific area of interest.
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