Does Twitter happiness predict bullish markets? A study of the US stock markets

IF 1.7 Q3 MANAGEMENT

IIMB Management Review Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.iimb.2024.10.001

Vighneswara Swamy , Munusamy Dharani , Fumiko Takeda

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The evolving literature on using Twitter to capture investor sentiment suggests that stock market performance is linearly associated with Twitter's public mood. We investigate whether investor sentiment determined by the Twitter sentiment index (TSI) has a nonlinear predictive power for stock market behaviour. Using a dataset of seven US stock markets, we apply the cointegration techniques to show the relationship between Twitter sentiment and stock market behaviour. The results suggest a dynamic nonlinear cointegrating relationship. During the short run, Twitter happiness has a substantial effect on stock market indices, while in the long run, it has a moderating effect. Twitter happiness has a dominant effect on the US stock market indices than unhappy Twitter. These results highlight Twitter's growing role in predicting the stock market behaviour and show that the TSI acts as a better predictor of investor sentiment.

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来源期刊

IIMB Management Review MANAGEMENT-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.90%

发文量

审稿时长

68 days

期刊介绍： IIMB Management Review (IMR) is a quarterly journal brought out by the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore. Addressed to management practitioners, researchers and academics, IMR aims to engage rigorously with practices, concepts and ideas in the field of management, with an emphasis on providing managerial insights, in a reader friendly format. To this end IMR invites manuscripts that provide novel managerial insights in any of the core business functions. The manuscript should be rigorous, that is, the findings should be supported by either empirical data or a well-justified theoretical model, and well written. While these two requirements are necessary for acceptance, they do not guarantee acceptance. The sole criterion for publication is contribution to the extant management literature.Although all manuscripts are welcome, our special emphasis is on papers that focus on emerging economies throughout the world. Such papers may either improve our understanding of markets in such economies through novel analyses or build models by taking into account the special characteristics of such economies to provide guidance to managers.