Replacing fossil fuel-based power plants with renewables to meet Iran's environmental commitments in the electricity sector

Abstract

The worldwide matter of climate change, which has negative impacts on the Earth and its inhabitants, is attributed to the elevation in emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) caused by the burning of fossil fuels. Due to the disproportionate rise of GHGs in recent decades, global warming and climate change have necessitated the adoption of suitable measures. In this context, the Paris Agreement, which seeks to diminish global GHG emissions, was ratified in 2015 by the UNFCCC to impede the rise in temperature. As a signatory to the contract, Iran has pledged to lower its GHG emissions by 2030, as outlined in the country's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). The power sector stands out as the primary source of these gas emissions; thus, the article focuses solely on this issue. To fulfill Iran's obligations under the Paris Agreement regarding the power industry, three scenarios were developed using the EnergyPLAN model, i.e., Business as Usual (BAU), National Strategic Plan on Climate Change (NSP), and Integrated Renewables and Efficiency Enhancement (IREE). Unlike the other two scenarios, the BAU scenario fails to meet Iranian obligations. Iran appears to have the capacity to honor its commitments by the NSP framework before 2030, yet its feasibility remains uncertain. Consequently, the IREE scenario is recommended, which could comply with Iran's commitments under the Paris Agreement by increasing the capacity of renewable energies to 3200 MW (wind and solar) and enhancing the average efficiency of thermal power plants to 41 %.