Mathematical analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Iraq utilising empirical data

Abstract

This study examines the impact and transmission of COVID-19 in Iraq via the development of a mathematical model grounded in the $SI{I}_{h}R$ framework. We assess and quantify the biological parameters of the model utilising empirical data. To ascertain the model’s reliability, we examine the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Utilising the validated model, we establish an optimal control problem aimed at minimising daily infections via vaccination, employing a cost function. We also present algorithms utilising Pontryagin’s minimum principle, with time-delay modifications, to identify the optimal vaccination strategy.