A comprehensive evaluation of machine learning and deep learning algorithms for wind speed and power prediction

Abstract

Accurate wind speed and power predictions are crucial for renewable wind energy applications. This study compares and evaluates twelve machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms, including single and ensemble models across various time scales from 10 min to a day and a half ahead with a particular focus on ensemble prediction algorithms. Moreover, the study proposes a wind speed and power prediction system where the outcome of the wind speed prediction (WSP) model serves as input for the wind power prediction (WPP) model. Several evaluation metrics, such as mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE) were calculated to benchmark different model accuracies. For WSP, the extremely randomized trees, decision tree, and bagging ensemble algorithms demonstrated high accuracy across different time scales where the MAPE ranged from 3.4% to 9.2%, the MSE ranged from 0.17 to 1.15, and the adjusted coefficient of determination ranged from 94% to 99%. For WPP, bagging ensemble algorithms and extremely randomized trees were also effective for predicting different time scales where the MAPE ranged from 4.12% to 11.7% and the MSE ranged from 10945 to 2.4. Ensemble ML algorithms provide better and more accurate results than single ML algorithms. The extreme gradient boosting model showed relatively small computational time and memory according to computational cost. Moreover, this study conducted a sensitivity analysis where air pressure, wind vane, and humidity were the key predictors for WSP and WPP.