Red snapper in the Gulf of Mexico: Can offshore populations export larval subsidies to nearshore fishing grounds?

Abstract

The contribution of red snapper offshore populations to the replenishment of exploited areas in the Gulf of Mexico has been a source of debate and uncertainty in the management of this species for decades. Here, we investigate the spatial patterns of larval connectivity of red snapper in the Gulf, estimating source-sink dynamics and exploring how exploitation pressure can alter these patterns. Our results suggest that while the offshore cryptic biomass can contribute a large percentage of settlers to the Gulf, offshore biomass is unlikely to replenish highly exploited nearshore fishing grounds due to low likelihood of larval transport between offshore and nearshore habitats. Our results also indicate that high fishing pressure in nearshore areas, particularly by the recreational fishery, can change larval connectivity patterns. Taken together, our study provides insight into the complex interactions between heterogeneous fishing pressure and larval source-sink dynamics. Overall, this study highlights the importance of managing for localized depletion and balancing commercial and recreational fishing priorities. The findings emphasize the need for fine-scale spatial considerations in red snapper fishery management to address larval connectivity dynamics and mitigate the impact of exploitation.