A parametric statistical inference measure for input-based uncertainty quantification in BEPU analysis

IF 1.9 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI:10.1016/j.anucene.2025.111214

Seyed Ali Hosseini , Amir Saeed Shirani , Reza Akbari , Francesco D’Auria

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Abstract

This work conducts a thorough input-based uncertainty quantification (IBUQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) to assess the evolution of uncertainties during an SB-LOCA in a VVER-1000. First, the contributing uncertain parameters in the scenario are identified. Then, a framework coupling DAKOTA and RELAP5 is employed to preprocess input files, generated through Monte-Carlo sampling, and to post-process Figure-of-Merits (FOMs). As a novel contribution of this work, a parametric statistical measure, “Overlapping Index (OI)”, is conceptualized based on Gaussian-parametrized distributions, retrieved from different order statistics (OS). The cladding failure time (CFT), representing the exceedance of peak cladding temperature (PCT) beyond the threshold, is used to operationalize OI. Despite moderate skewness in the distributions, the results indicate that the OI can serve as a global confidence measure for IBUQ. Overall, OI enables a deeper understanding of uncertainties’ evolution, paving the path for probabilistic validation, and providing specific support for risk-informed decision-making.

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来源期刊

Annals of Nuclear Energy 工程技术-核科学技术

CiteScore

4.30

自引率

21.10%

发文量

632

审稿时长

7.3 months

期刊介绍： Annals of Nuclear Energy provides an international medium for the communication of original research, ideas and developments in all areas of the field of nuclear energy science and technology. Its scope embraces nuclear fuel reserves, fuel cycles and cost, materials, processing, system and component technology (fission only), design and optimization, direct conversion of nuclear energy sources, environmental control, reactor physics, heat transfer and fluid dynamics, structural analysis, fuel management, future developments, nuclear fuel and safety, nuclear aerosol, neutron physics, computer technology (both software and hardware), risk assessment, radioactive waste disposal and reactor thermal hydraulics. Papers submitted to Annals need to demonstrate a clear link to nuclear power generation/nuclear engineering. Papers which deal with pure nuclear physics, pure health physics, imaging, or attenuation and shielding properties of concretes and various geological materials are not within the scope of the journal. Also, papers that deal with policy or economics are not within the scope of the journal.