Assessing the impact of modern streetcar on street robbery at street segment level: a longitudinal comparison in Cincinnati, OH

Abstract

Many studies have examined the relationship between street crime and public transit nodes, such as bus stops, subway stations, railway stations, and shared bike stations, but few have touched on streetcar stations, especially at the street segment level. Like other types of transit nodes, streetcar stations may function as crime generators, as suggested by crime opportunity theories. This study examines the potential impact of streetcar stations on street robberies in Cincinnati, OH. Unlike most studies that either explore the association between transit and crime or compare the associations before and after transit operation, this study compares longitudinal associations of three periods of pre-construction, construction, and post-construction of the streetcar stations. We use GIS techniques, negative binomial regression, and difference-in-differences (DID) models for the comparison. Results reveal that street robbery decreased from pre-construction to post-construction of the streetcar in Cincinnati but became increasingly concentrated on a few street segments. No association exists between the location of future streetcar stations and street robbery prior to construction; however, the association emerges during construction and becomes more significant post-construction, coupled with community conditions and Point-of-Interests (POIs). Therefore, what generated crime is streetcar stations instead of the locations of the streetcar stations. Further, the effects of streetcar stations are not as strong as those of the bus stops. These findings contribute to the literature on street crime and public transit. The DID model further underscores the possible causal effect of the streetcar stations on crime. Moreover, it also informs the local police department that additional focus is needed for streetcar stations, bus stops and their surrounding social and built environments.