Expanding strategic vision: The role of Non-Utopian Unreal Scenarios in decision-making

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to document the Non-Utopian Unreal Scenarios —or NUUS— and to propose a mathematical approach, presenting them as a strategic tool that seeks to contribute to decision-making processes in various fields, in addition to those already existing, such as, for example, the Hurwicz, Wald, Savage and Laplace criteria. Traditional scenario planning often focuses on probable outcomes, which can limit strategic vision and the preparation of strategies that go beyond the limits set by the six existing scenarios. However, NUUS encourages the consideration of improbable but possible high-impact scenarios, thus broadening the scope of strategic planning. We employ a qualitative methodology, integrating insights from the scenario planning and risk management literature. We further highlight the limitations of conventional approaches prioritizing the Maximax and Maximin criteria, proposing a seventh scenario incorporating a broader range of possibilities. The study demonstrates how NUUS can facilitate more robust strategic foresight by analysing historical case studies and theoretical frameworks. Mathematical reasoning is used to develop a framework for calculating the implications of these scenarios, emphasizing the importance of probabilistic thinking in risk assessment. We show organizations can benefit from adopting NUUS to navigate uncertainty and reduce risk. We also discuss the practical applications of NUUS, illustrating its potential to inform strategic decisions in complex environments. This study contributes to strategic management by integrating NUUS into decision-making frameworks. Although further empirical studies will be required to validate the effectiveness of NUUS in real-world applications, with the ultimate goal of equipping organizations with the tools necessary to thrive in an increasingly unpredictable world, the conceptualization of NUUS could serve as an impetus for this. The implications of this study extend beyond theoretical discourse and offer practical insights for practitioners seeking to enhance their strategic planning and scenario exploration capabilities.