Transmission dynamics of dengue with asymptomatic infection and a case study in Bangladesh

IF 4.4 2区数学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation Pub Date : 2024-12-06 DOI:10.1016/j.matcom.2024.12.003

Huarong Ren , Rui Xu

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Abstract

Dengue is a serious global public health crisis. The majority of dengue infections are asymptomatic, which makes disease control difficult. In this paper, a host–vector model considering asymptomatic infection and extrinsic and intrinsic incubation periods is developed to simulate the transmission pattern of dengue. The basic reproduction number is calculated by using the renewal equation method. The global threshold dynamics is established by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and using LaSalle’s invariance principle. The model is validated by fitting it to 2023 dengue epidemic data in Bangladesh. The fitting results show that the basic reproduction number is 4.1621 in the absence of control measures, in which contributions of asymptomatic infection and symptomatic infection account for 65% and 35%, respectively. In addition, through sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations, the effects of control measures and asymptomatic infection on basic reproduction number and transmission dynamics of dengue are clarified. The results show that (1) when the infectivity of asymptomatic individuals is more than 0.6 times that of symptomatic individuals, it is necessary to take measures to control the transmission risk of asymptomatic individuals; (2) the mortality rate of mosquito is the most critical factor in controlling dengue; (3) the mosquito density threshold for preventing mass transmission of dengue is 0.5199.

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来源期刊

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 数学-计算机：跨学科应用

CiteScore

8.90

自引率

4.30%

发文量

335

审稿时长

54 days

期刊介绍： The aim of the journal is to provide an international forum for the dissemination of up-to-date information in the fields of the mathematics and computers, in particular (but not exclusively) as they apply to the dynamics of systems, their simulation and scientific computation in general. Published material ranges from short, concise research papers to more general tutorial articles. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, published monthly, is the official organ of IMACS, the International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (Formerly AICA). This Association, founded in 1955 and legally incorporated in 1956 is a member of FIACC (the Five International Associations Coordinating Committee), together with IFIP, IFAV, IFORS and IMEKO. Topics covered by the journal include mathematical tools in: •The foundations of systems modelling •Numerical analysis and the development of algorithms for simulation They also include considerations about computer hardware for simulation and about special software and compilers. The journal also publishes articles concerned with specific applications of modelling and simulation in science and engineering, with relevant applied mathematics, the general philosophy of systems simulation, and their impact on disciplinary and interdisciplinary research. The journal includes a Book Review section -- and a "News on IMACS" section that contains a Calendar of future Conferences/Events and other information about the Association.