Interval Forecasting of Carbon Price With a Novel Hybrid Multiscale Decomposition and Bootstrap Approach

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel hybrid multiscale decomposition and bootstrap approach for carbon price interval forecasting, aiming to overcome the limitations of traditional carbon price point forecasting. The original carbon price is decomposed into simple modes using the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), and various bootstrap methods are applied to perform a random sampling with a replacement on each mode, generating pseudo datasets forecasted using extreme gradient boosting (XGB). The forecasting values of all modes are then integrated into the original carbon price interval forecasting values. The empirical results, based on samples from China's Guangdong and Hubei carbon markets, provide compelling evidence of the effectiveness of our model. It achieves higher forecasting accuracy, higher interval coverage, and narrower forecasting intervals than currently popular prediction models, instilling confidence in its potential to enhance carbon price forecasting.