{"title":"Global Risk Aversion: Driving Force of Future Real Economic Activity","authors":"Jinhwan Kim, Hoon Cho, Doojin Ryu","doi":"10.1002/for.3203","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines how global risk aversion affects future real economic activity (REA). We propose a new international real business cycle (RBC) framework with a stochastic global risk aversion spillover process by extending the RBC model. Our model suggests output competition and risk aversion spillover as two influence channels of global risk aversion. We extract relative risk aversion factors and evaluate the significance of changes in the level of global risk aversion for forecasting. Our findings suggest that changes in the level of global risk aversion significantly drive the business cycle of open economies. A global risk aversion factor predicts a domestic country's future REA at least as well as the domestic risk aversion factor does. The impact of global risk aversion can vary depending on a country's relative productivity.</p>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 2","pages":"706-729"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3203","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Forecasting","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3203","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study examines how global risk aversion affects future real economic activity (REA). We propose a new international real business cycle (RBC) framework with a stochastic global risk aversion spillover process by extending the RBC model. Our model suggests output competition and risk aversion spillover as two influence channels of global risk aversion. We extract relative risk aversion factors and evaluate the significance of changes in the level of global risk aversion for forecasting. Our findings suggest that changes in the level of global risk aversion significantly drive the business cycle of open economies. A global risk aversion factor predicts a domestic country's future REA at least as well as the domestic risk aversion factor does. The impact of global risk aversion can vary depending on a country's relative productivity.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.
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