Wind Speed Modeling under Quasi-Linear Autoregressive Neural Network Model for Prediction of Production Power

Abstract

Accurate wind speed modeling is beneficial for the design of wind energy conversion systems. Models of wind speed are used to assess the adequacy and dependability of a power supply. However, precise wind speed modeling is challenging due to the sporadic availability of wind speed. In this note, we propose a wind speed model with an autoregressive (AR) structure. A hybrid model is developed under linear and nonlinear parts based on a quasi-linear autoregressive exogenous neural network (Q-ARX-NN). The model's structure is composed of a regression vector and its coefficients. The coefficients are divided into linear and nonlinear coefficients. A set of linear coefficients is identified under the algorithm of least square error (LSE), and a set of nonlinear coefficients is modeled by using a neural network to refine the residual error of the nonlinear part. Some artificial neural network (ANN) models can be set as nonlinear part sub-models to sharpen the model's accuracy. The proposed model is tested for wind speed modeling to estimate wind energy production. Various nonlinear parts of the sub-model are tested, such as neural networks, radial basis function networks, and ANN networks. Moreover, we evaluate the effects of the order of the model by varying hidden and output nodes, which can be summarized as the number of coefficients of the regression vector. Using specific wind turbine performance data, prediction models estimate production power. © 2024 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan and Wiley Periodicals LLC.