Forecasting carbon emissions peak in Chinese household consumption and selecting low-carbon development strategies: A study based on the extended SPIRPAT model

Abstract

Residential carbon emissions have emerged as a primary driver of future carbon emissions in China. Investigating the influential factors affecting demand-side carbon emissions and elucidating future pathways for regional carbon reduction in consumption can provide a scientific basis for regional carbon peak and carbon-neutral action plans. This study incorporated the development of digital technology into the STIRPAT model. The technical components of the STIRPAT model were expanded upon to better understand the factors influencing the household consumption sector and the carbon emission reduction effects of these various factors. The results indicated that: (i) per capita residential carbon emissions in China exhibit a slow fluctuating rise followed by accelerated growth, with the sequence of emissions being highest in the eastern region, followed by the northeastern region, western region, and finally the central region; (ii) population size, shared prosperity, urbanization development, and digitalization collectively influence residential carbon emissions in different regions, with population size and consumption structure playing the most significant promoting and inhibiting roles, respectively; (iii) societal development scenarios and low-carbon development scenarios demonstrate a significant advantage in achieving the timely realization of China's overall residential carbon reduction plan. In most provinces, peak emissions are projected to occur around 2035 under various scenarios, necessitating substantial efforts for provinces to meet the 2030 carbon peak target.