Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on freight volume, revenue and expenditure of deendayal port in India: An ARIMA forecasting model

Abstract

Shipping sector is vital to Indian economy, making it crucial to understand the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on port operations to develop strategies for future resilience. This study examines the effects of COVID-19 on Deendayal Port, a key Indian port, by analyzing freight volume, revenue, and expenditure data from April 2012 to October 2022. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling covers pre-COVID, two COVID-19 waves, and post-COVID scenarios. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models for revenue and expenditure evaluate economic losses. The results show 6.2% decline in freight volume during the first wave, with a decrease from 123.4 million tons (Mt) to 115.8 Mt, leading to a monthly average loss of 0.6 Mt. The second wave saw recovery, with freight volume increasing from the forecasted 127.6 Mt to 129.6 Mt, resulting in a monthly gain of 0.2 Mt. Revenue losses during wave 1 were 215 crore INR, while wave 2 saw a revenue increase of 57 crore INR. The study highlights the importance of operational efficiency and managing key cost drivers like volume and manpower to maintain financial stability. These findings lay a foundation for future research to strengthen the shipping industry's resilience and sustainability in post-pandemic world.