B J J Bindels, R H Kuijten, O Q Groot, E H Huele, R Gal, M C H de Groot, J M van der Velden, D Delawi, J H Schwab, H M Verkooijen, J J Verlaan, D Tobert, J P H J Rutges
{"title":"External validation of twelve existing survival prediction models for patients with spinal metastases.","authors":"B J J Bindels, R H Kuijten, O Q Groot, E H Huele, R Gal, M C H de Groot, J M van der Velden, D Delawi, J H Schwab, H M Verkooijen, J J Verlaan, D Tobert, J P H J Rutges","doi":"10.1016/j.spinee.2025.01.014","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background context: </strong>Survival prediction models for patients with spinal metastases may inform patients and clinicians in shared decision-making.</p><p><strong>Purpose: </strong>To externally validate all existing survival prediction models for patients with spinal metastases.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>Prospective cohort study using retrospective data.</p><p><strong>Patient sample: </strong>953 patients.</p><p><strong>Outcome measures: </strong>Survival in months, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration intercept and slope.</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>This study included patients with spinal metastases referred to a single tertiary referral center between 2016 and 2021. Twelve models for predicting 3, 6, and 12-month survival were externally validated Bollen, Mizumoto, Modified Bauer, New England Spinal Metastasis Score, Original Bauer, Oswestry Spinal Risk Index (OSRI), PathFx, Revised Katagiri, Revised Tokuhashi, Skeletal Oncology Research Group Machine Learning Algorithm (SORG-MLA), Tomita, and Van der Linden. Discrimination was assessed using (AUC) and calibration using the intercept and slope. Calibration was considered appropriate if calibration measures were close to their ideal values with narrow confidence intervals.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In total, 953 patients were included. Survival was 76.4% at 3 months (728/953), 62.2% at 6 months (593/953), and 50.3% at 12 months (479/953). Revised Katagiri yielded AUCs of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.76-0.82) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.79-0.84), Bollen yielded AUCs of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.73-0.80) to 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.80), and OSRI yielded AUCs of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72-0.78) to 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79). The other 9 prediction models yielded AUCs ranging from 0.59 (95% CI, 0.55-0.63) to 0.76 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79). None of the twelve models yielded appropriate calibration.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Twelve survival prediction models for patients with spinal metastases yielded poor to fair discrimination and poor calibration. Survival prediction models may inform decision-making in patients with spinal metastases, provided that recalibration using recent patient data is performed.</p>","PeriodicalId":49484,"journal":{"name":"Spine Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Spine Journal","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spinee.2025.01.014","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background context: Survival prediction models for patients with spinal metastases may inform patients and clinicians in shared decision-making.
Purpose: To externally validate all existing survival prediction models for patients with spinal metastases.
Design: Prospective cohort study using retrospective data.
Patient sample: 953 patients.
Outcome measures: Survival in months, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration intercept and slope.
Method: This study included patients with spinal metastases referred to a single tertiary referral center between 2016 and 2021. Twelve models for predicting 3, 6, and 12-month survival were externally validated Bollen, Mizumoto, Modified Bauer, New England Spinal Metastasis Score, Original Bauer, Oswestry Spinal Risk Index (OSRI), PathFx, Revised Katagiri, Revised Tokuhashi, Skeletal Oncology Research Group Machine Learning Algorithm (SORG-MLA), Tomita, and Van der Linden. Discrimination was assessed using (AUC) and calibration using the intercept and slope. Calibration was considered appropriate if calibration measures were close to their ideal values with narrow confidence intervals.
Results: In total, 953 patients were included. Survival was 76.4% at 3 months (728/953), 62.2% at 6 months (593/953), and 50.3% at 12 months (479/953). Revised Katagiri yielded AUCs of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.76-0.82) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.79-0.84), Bollen yielded AUCs of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.73-0.80) to 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.80), and OSRI yielded AUCs of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72-0.78) to 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79). The other 9 prediction models yielded AUCs ranging from 0.59 (95% CI, 0.55-0.63) to 0.76 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79). None of the twelve models yielded appropriate calibration.
Conclusions: Twelve survival prediction models for patients with spinal metastases yielded poor to fair discrimination and poor calibration. Survival prediction models may inform decision-making in patients with spinal metastases, provided that recalibration using recent patient data is performed.
期刊介绍：
The Spine Journal, the official journal of the North American Spine Society, is an international and multidisciplinary journal that publishes original, peer-reviewed articles on research and treatment related to the spine and spine care, including basic science and clinical investigations. It is a condition of publication that manuscripts submitted to The Spine Journal have not been published, and will not be simultaneously submitted or published elsewhere. The Spine Journal also publishes major reviews of specific topics by acknowledged authorities, technical notes, teaching editorials, and other special features, Letters to the Editor-in-Chief are encouraged.
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