Generational variations in wellbeing: suicide rates, cohort characteristics, and national socio-political context over seven decades

Abstract

Over recent decades, the relative wellbeing of younger birth cohorts declined in many western countries, indicating growing generational inequality. Building on Durkheimian theory, this paper examines explanations for these changes, hypothesizing that differences in cohort wellbeing are related to variations in social integration associated with birth cohorts and national socio-political contexts. Age–period-specific suicide rates of men and women from 1950 to 2020 in 19 highly developed western nations, including 26 birth cohorts, born from 1875 to 2004, are examined using estimable function analysis and age–period–cohort characteristic (APCC) models. Cohort variations in wellbeing are significantly greater in English-speaking nations, which have traditionally provided less institutionalized support and social integration than continental European nations. Age-specific suicide rates are larger for cohorts with childhood demographic characteristics associated with less social integration (relative cohort size and family structure). Major historical events associated with social integration in formative years of late adolescence and young adulthood also influence cohort wellbeing, with higher age-specific rates for cohorts experiencing the Great Depression of the 1930s and health pandemics of the early 20th and 21st centuries and lower rates for those experiencing periods of war and national conflict. However, the magnitude of these associations is strongly influenced by socio-political context. Negative effects of cohort characteristics are muted and positive effects are enhanced in the continental nations. In addition, patterns of associations vary by age and gender. Results remain with strong controls for the pace of change, additional measures of national context, and sensitivity analyses.