Urban soil ecological risk assessment based on “climate change- resilience”

Abstract

Under the dual pressures of global climate change and rapid urbanization, urban soil ecosystems face increasingly complex risks and challenges. Existing urban soil ecological risk assessment methods are primarily limited to single-dimensional analysis or linear assessment models, making it difficult to reveal the complex interaction mechanisms among soil, climate, and human activities. This study pioneers the integration of social-ecological system theory with multi-criteria decision-making methods to innovatively construct a dynamic coupling assessment framework. This framework employs the AHP-DEMATEL method to identify causal relationships and feedback mechanisms between indicators, while utilizing the VIKOR method for comprehensive quantitative risk assessment. Through an empirical analysis of 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province, this study reveals that: (1) climate change-related indicators demonstrate dominant weights, with the impact of extreme weather (C3) reaching a comprehensive weight of 0.1082, significantly higher than other indicators; (2) soil biodiversity (C8) exhibits the highest centrality (10.112), forming a key feedback node in the assessment system, highlighting the crucial role of biological factors in maintaining soil system stability; (3) green infrastructure coverage (C16) shows the highest cause degree (2.261), generating complex cascade effects through its influence on soil temperature, moisture, and biodiversity; (4) urban risk levels display significant spatial heterogeneity, with Lishui performing optimally (group benefit value S = 0.069) and Zhoushan performing poorest (S = 1.000), quantifying the impact of economic development patterns and geographical location on soil ecological risk. The dynamic coupling assessment framework and quantitative indicator system established in this study provide a new paradigm for understanding the complexity of urban soil ecosystems.