Risk factor analysis and prediction of multi-organ metastasis in hepatic alveolar echinococcosis.

IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q3 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
Saudi Journal of Gastroenterology Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-31 DOI:10.4103/sjg.sjg_240_24
Pan Xia, Xiang-Qian Wang, Chao-Liang Shang-Guan, Zheng Wang, Wei Xu, Jin-Peng Wang, Zhen Liu, Hai-Hong Zhu
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Patients with multiple organ metastases from hepatic alveolar echinococcosis have a high mortality rate. However, predictors of multi-organ metastasis have not been identified. We aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts multi-organ metastasis in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis.

Methods: We retrospectively screened patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis who were treated between January 2016 and December 2021 at Qinghai Provincial People's Hospital, China. The outcome of the nomogram was multi-organ metastasis of hepatic alveolar echinococcosis. We collected patients' basic characteristics, disease course, imaging, and blood laboratory results. The Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) analysis selected the predictors preliminarily. A predictive model was constructed by multivariate logistic regression and presented as a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was measured by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration diagram, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The model was internally validated by calculating the performance of the validation cohort.

Results: A total of 353 patients were enrolled in this study. Ninety five (26.9%) patients presented with multi-organ metastases. All participants were randomized into a development cohort ( n = 249) and a validation cohort ( n = 104). Predictors in this nomogram were the course of the disease, the long diameter of the lesion, multiple intrahepatic lesions, and medication. The ROC curve of the training set was 0.907 (95% CI: 0.870, 0.943). A similar ROC curve was achieved at the validation set (0.927, 95% CI: 0.876, 0.979). The calibration curve demonstrated that the prediction outcome was correlated with the observed outcome.

Conclusion: The nomogram can predict the risk of multi-organ metastasis in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis, and help clinicians develop or adjust a reasonable diagnosis and treatment plan in time.

肝肺泡包虫病多器官转移的危险因素分析及预测。
背景:肝肺泡包虫病多器官转移患者死亡率高。然而,多器官转移的预测因素尚未确定。我们的目的是建立一种预测肝肺泡包虫病患者多器官转移的图。方法:回顾性筛选2016年1月至2021年12月在青海省人民医院治疗的肝肺泡包虫病患者。影像学结果为肝肺泡包虫病多器官转移。我们收集了患者的基本特征、病程、影像学和血液化验结果。最小绝对收缩选择算子(LASSO)分析初步选择了预测因子。采用多元逻辑回归方法建立预测模型,并以模态图表示。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校正图和决策曲线分析(DCA)来衡量nomogram的性能。通过计算验证队列的表现,对模型进行内部验证。结果:本研究共纳入353例患者。95例(26.9%)患者出现多器官转移。所有参与者被随机分为发展队列(n = 249)和验证队列(n = 104)。该nomogram预测因子包括病程、病变直径、肝内多发病变和药物。训练集的ROC曲线为0.907 (95% CI: 0.870, 0.943)。验证集的ROC曲线相似(0.927,95% CI: 0.876, 0.979)。校正曲线表明,预测结果与观测结果呈正相关。结论:肝肺泡包虫病nomogram多脏器转移风险预测,有助于临床医生及时制定或调整合理的诊疗方案。
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来源期刊
Saudi Journal of Gastroenterology
Saudi Journal of Gastroenterology GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY-
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
3.70%
发文量
63
审稿时长
28 weeks
期刊介绍: The Saudi Journal of Gastroenterology (SJG) is an open access peer-reviewed publication. Authors are invited to submit articles in the field of gastroenterology, hepatology and nutrition, with a wide spectrum of coverage including basic science, epidemiology, diagnostics, therapeutics, public health, and standards of health care in relation to the concerned specialty. Review articles are usually by invitation. However review articles of current interest and a high standard of scientific value could also be considered for publication.
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