Evaluating allograft risk models in organ transplantation: Understanding and balancing model discrimination and calibration.

IF 4.7 2区 医学 Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
Liver Transplantation Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-31 DOI:10.1097/LVT.0000000000000575
David Goldberg, Hemant Ishwaran, Vishnu Potluri, Michael Harhay, Emily Vail, Peter Abt, Sarah J Ratcliffe, Peter P Reese
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In the field of organ transplantation, the accurate assessment of donor organ quality is necessary for efficient organ allocation and informed consent for recipients. A common approach to organ quality assessment is the development of statistical models that accurately predict posttransplant survival by integrating multiple characteristics of the donor and allograft. Despite the proliferation of predictive models across many domains of medicine, many physicians may have limited familiarity with how these models are built, the assessment of how well models function in their population, and the risks of a poorly performing model. Our goal in this perspective is to offer advice to transplant professionals about how to evaluate a prediction model, focusing on the key aspects of discrimination and calibration. We use liver allograft assessment as a paradigm example, but the lessons pertain to other scenarios too.

评估器官移植中的同种异体移植风险模型:理解和平衡模型的区分和校准。
在器官移植领域,准确评估供体器官质量是有效分配器官和接受者知情同意的必要条件。器官质量评估的一种常见方法是开发统计模型,通过整合供体和同种异体移植物的多种特征来准确预测移植后的生存。尽管预测模型在医学的许多领域激增,但许多医生可能对这些模型是如何建立的,对模型在他们的人群中发挥作用的评估以及表现不佳的模型的风险的熟悉程度有限。从这个角度来看,我们的目标是为移植专业人员提供有关如何评估预测模型的建议,重点关注区分和校准的关键方面。我们使用同种异体肝移植评估作为范例,但经验教训也适用于其他情况。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Liver Transplantation
Liver Transplantation 医学-外科
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
6.50%
发文量
254
审稿时长
3-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Since the first application of liver transplantation in a clinical situation was reported more than twenty years ago, there has been a great deal of growth in this field and more is anticipated. As an official publication of the AASLD, Liver Transplantation delivers current, peer-reviewed articles on liver transplantation, liver surgery, and chronic liver disease — the information necessary to keep abreast of this evolving specialty.
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