Global trends in thyroid cancer 1990-2021: an analysis based on the GBD 2021.

Abstract

This study evaluated the global burden of thyroid cancer (TC) from 1990 to 2021, analyzing its association with sociodemographic factors, sex, age, risk factors, and future projections. Using 2021 Global Burden of Disease data, we analyzed TC incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across populations. Risk factors were assessed, and future trends forecasted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. In 2021, global TC incidence was 249,538 cases (age-standardized incidence rate [ASIR]: 2.91 per 100,000). Mortality reached 44,799 cases, with a slight decrease in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). DALYs increased by 92.73%, though the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) declined. East Asia had the highest incidence, while South Asia led in mortality and DALYs. TC burden showed a strong negative correlation with socioeconomic development, especially in high- and medium Socio-Demographic Index countries. High body mass index (BMI) contributed significantly to DALYs and mortality, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. Population growth emerged as the key driver of the rising global TC burden. Projections suggest ASIR will increase by 2050, while ASMR and ASDR will decline. Global TC incidence has risen markedly, particularly among males, while mortality and DALYs have decreased due to improved healthcare. High BMI increasingly contributes to the TC burden. Projections highlight a continued rise in incidence but declining mortality and DALYs, reflecting advancements in treatment and management.