The impact of the U.S federal minimum legal drinking age law on alcohol involved firearm suicide: a regression discontinuity approach.

IF 9.6 1区医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

EClinicalMedicine Pub Date : 2025-01-10 eCollection Date: 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.103057

Vageesh Jain, Matthew Miller, David Hemenway

{"title":"The impact of the U.S federal minimum legal drinking age law on alcohol involved firearm suicide: a regression discontinuity approach.","authors":"Vageesh Jain, Matthew Miller, David Hemenway","doi":"10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.103057","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death for young people. Half of young adult suicides are by firearm, and many involve alcohol consumption. We aimed to assess the impact of the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) of 21 years on rates of alcohol positive firearm and non-firearm suicide.Methods: We used a regression discontinuity approach with data from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) 2005-2021, among U.S suicide decedents in 14 states aged 16-35 years. The primary outcomes were the change in the proportion of tests positive for alcohol and the change in rates of alcohol positive suicide per 100,000 population at the MLDA.Findings: Across 14 states and 169 state-years, there were 434 alcohol positive suicides at age 20 and 684 alcohol positive suicides at age 21. The percentage of suicides with a positive alcohol test increased from 29.5% at age 20 to 38.7% at age 21 (p < 0.001), with a larger increase among firearm suicides relative to non-firearm suicides. Accounting for age-related trends, the total alcohol positive suicide rate increased by 1.52 per 100,000 (p < 0.001) at the MLDA, mostly due to an increase in alcohol positive firearm suicide. Compared to the expected rate in the absence of the MLDA, there was a 47.5% (95% CI 24.1%-81.8%) excess in firearm suicides, equivalent to 137 (95% CI 82-191) excess deaths. There was no discontinuity in the rate of alcohol negative firearm suicides at age 21. Blood alcohol content was not affected by the MLDA but was higher for firearm suicides across all ages.Interpretation: There was a large increase in the rate of alcohol positive suicide at the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA), driven by firearm suicide. Policies and programmes should aim to weaken the link between alcohol and firearms among those at or just above legal drinking age to prevent suicide.Funding: The Commonwealth Fund and The Joyce Foundation.","PeriodicalId":11393,"journal":{"name":"EClinicalMedicine","volume":"80 ","pages":"103057"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11773202/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"EClinicalMedicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.103057","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/2/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death for young people. Half of young adult suicides are by firearm, and many involve alcohol consumption. We aimed to assess the impact of the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) of 21 years on rates of alcohol positive firearm and non-firearm suicide.

Methods: We used a regression discontinuity approach with data from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) 2005-2021, among U.S suicide decedents in 14 states aged 16-35 years. The primary outcomes were the change in the proportion of tests positive for alcohol and the change in rates of alcohol positive suicide per 100,000 population at the MLDA.

Findings: Across 14 states and 169 state-years, there were 434 alcohol positive suicides at age 20 and 684 alcohol positive suicides at age 21. The percentage of suicides with a positive alcohol test increased from 29.5% at age 20 to 38.7% at age 21 (p < 0.001), with a larger increase among firearm suicides relative to non-firearm suicides. Accounting for age-related trends, the total alcohol positive suicide rate increased by 1.52 per 100,000 (p < 0.001) at the MLDA, mostly due to an increase in alcohol positive firearm suicide. Compared to the expected rate in the absence of the MLDA, there was a 47.5% (95% CI 24.1%-81.8%) excess in firearm suicides, equivalent to 137 (95% CI 82-191) excess deaths. There was no discontinuity in the rate of alcohol negative firearm suicides at age 21. Blood alcohol content was not affected by the MLDA but was higher for firearm suicides across all ages.

Interpretation: There was a large increase in the rate of alcohol positive suicide at the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA), driven by firearm suicide. Policies and programmes should aim to weaken the link between alcohol and firearms among those at or just above legal drinking age to prevent suicide.

Funding: The Commonwealth Fund and The Joyce Foundation.

查看原文本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

EClinicalMedicine Medicine-Medicine (all)

CiteScore

18.90

自引率

1.30%

发文量

506

审稿时长

22 days

期刊介绍： eClinicalMedicine is a gold open-access clinical journal designed to support frontline health professionals in addressing the complex and rapid health transitions affecting societies globally. The journal aims to assist practitioners in overcoming healthcare challenges across diverse communities, spanning diagnosis, treatment, prevention, and health promotion. Integrating disciplines from various specialties and life stages, it seeks to enhance health systems as fundamental institutions within societies. With a forward-thinking approach, eClinicalMedicine aims to redefine the future of healthcare.