Multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem services value and mechanism of its trade-offs under the township scale—evidence from Liaoning province

Abstract

Land use changes alter the capacity for the stable provisioning of regional ecosystem services, and the rational integration of ecological and economic benefits has become a critical challenge. The values of 11 specific ecosystem service functions and ecosystem service trade-off degrees were estimated. The Pearson correlation coefficient method and spatial autocorrelation were then utilized to investigate the relationship between these variables. The results showed that (1) the value of ecosystem services in Liaoning province increased by a total of 18.08 billion over the last two decades. The contribution of both water bodies and forest land accounted for more than 80% of this growth. Additionally, hydrological and climate regulation emerged as the most important ecosystem service functions. (2) In comparison to the natural development scenario, the tradeoffs in the economic development scenario were somewhat stronger, while the degree and direction of the interactions in the ecological protection scenario were altered, and synergistic relationships were reinforced. (3) ‘High-high’ aggregation primarily occurred between regulating services, provisioning services, and other ecosystem services, while ‘low-low’ aggregation occurred between provisioning services and other ecosystem services. These findings provide a scientific framework for Liaoning province to effectively integrate economic development and ecological protection.