Global, regional, and national burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2045: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021

IF 2.2 3区医学 Q3 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI:10.1016/j.gassur.2025.101968

Chunlong Liu , Sen Du , Xue Liu , Wang Niu , Kun Song , Jiangtao Yu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Identifying past, present, and future temporal trends in gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) can increase public awareness and promote changes in prevention and treatment strategies.

Methods

The incidence and death rates of GBTC between 1990 and 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 and assessed according to country, region, year, age, and sex. Time trends were measured using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and projections of the burden of disease for 2022 to 2045 were made using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results

In 2021, there were 216,768.3 new cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 181,888.0–245,237.6) and 171,961.2 deaths (95% UI, 142,351.8–194,238.4) in GBTC globally. The increases in incidence and deaths were 101.09% and 74.26%, respectively, compared with 1990. The GBTC burden was higher in females and older adults. However, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) trended downward from 1990 to 2021, with AAPC at −0.39 (95% CI, −0.52 to −0.26) and −0.88 (95% CI, −0.96 to −0.79), respectively. Although the ASIR and ASDR for both sexes are projected to decline gradually from 2022 to 2045, the incidence and deaths are expected to increase steadily. In addition, the global proportion of GBTC deaths owing to high body mass index in 2021 was 12.66% for females and 10.48% for males, which did not change significantly from 1990.

Conclusion

GBTC is becoming a major global health burden, especially among females and older adults. Given the increasing burden of an aging population, there is a need to reduce the incidence of this disease by adopting effective strategies and measures targeting risk factors.

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来源期刊

Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 医学-外科

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

3.10%

发文量

319

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery is a scholarly, peer-reviewed journal that updates the surgeon on the latest developments in gastrointestinal surgery. The journal includes original articles on surgery of the digestive tract; gastrointestinal images; "How I Do It" articles, subject reviews, book reports, editorial columns, the SSAT Presidential Address, articles by a guest orator, symposia, letters, results of conferences and more. This is the official publication of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract. The journal functions as an outstanding forum for continuing education in surgery and diseases of the gastrointestinal tract.