Multi-modal prediction of extracorporeal support-a resource intensive therapy, utilizing a large national database.

Abstract

Objective: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is among the most resource-intensive therapies in critical care. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the lack of ECMO resource allocation tools. We aimed to develop a continuous ECMO risk prediction model to enhance patient triage and resource allocation.

Material and methods: We leveraged multimodal data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) to develop a hierarchical deep learning model, labeled "PreEMPT-ECMO" (Prediction, Early Monitoring, and Proactive Triage for ECMO) which integrates static and multi-granularity time series features to generate continuous predictions of ECMO utilization. Model performance was assessed across time points ranging from 0 to 96 hours prior to ECMO initiation, using both accuracy and precision metrics.

Results: Between January 2020 and May 2023, 101 400 patients were included, with 1298 (1.28%) supported on ECMO. PreEMPT-ECMO outperformed established predictive models, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree, in both accuracy and precision at all time points. Model interpretation analysis also highlighted variations in feature contributions through each patient's clinical course.

Discussion and conclusions: We developed a hierarchical model for continuous ECMO use prediction, utilizing a large multicenter dataset incorporating both static and time series variables of various granularities. This novel approach reflects the nuanced decision-making process inherent in ECMO initiation and has the potential to be used as an early alert tool to guide patient triage and ECMO resource allocation. Future directions include prospective validation and generalizability on non-COVID-19 refractory respiratory failure, aiming to improve patient outcomes.