Development and validation of a preoperative prediction model for geriatric emergency general surgery.

IF 2.1 3区医学 Q2 SURGERY

Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI:10.1007/s00423-025-03610-1

Dequan Xu, Haoxin Zhou, Limin Hou

{"title":"Development and validation of a preoperative prediction model for geriatric emergency general surgery.","authors":"Dequan Xu, Haoxin Zhou, Limin Hou","doi":"10.1007/s00423-025-03610-1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The aim of this study was to establish a scoring system for preoperative assessment of postoperative mortality in elderly patients undergoing emergency general surgery.Methods: A retrospectively database of geriatric emergency general surgery (EGS) patients who underwent emergency surgery was used for the development of the scoring system.Results: In total, 1500 patients were enrolled with mean age of 69.8 years in the study. Through the development and comparison of models, we ultimately derived a rating scale known as GES (Geriatric Emergency Surgery Score). This score has a c-statistic of 0.892 for mortality (95% CI 0.854-0.931). The observed probability of mortality in hospital gradually increased from 1.1% at a score of 0 to 30.3% at a score of 5 and 100% at a score of 8.Conclusion: The GES scoring model in this study will accurately predict the mortality risk of elderly patients with acute abdomen, optimize the allocation of medical resources, and standardize the assessment of patients' conditions based on scientific criteria. Further prospective multicenter trials are needed to externally validate the model developed.","PeriodicalId":17983,"journal":{"name":"Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery","volume":"410 1","pages":"45"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11743386/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00423-025-03610-1","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"SURGERY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this study was to establish a scoring system for preoperative assessment of postoperative mortality in elderly patients undergoing emergency general surgery.

Methods: A retrospectively database of geriatric emergency general surgery (EGS) patients who underwent emergency surgery was used for the development of the scoring system.

Results: In total, 1500 patients were enrolled with mean age of 69.8 years in the study. Through the development and comparison of models, we ultimately derived a rating scale known as GES (Geriatric Emergency Surgery Score). This score has a c-statistic of 0.892 for mortality (95% CI 0.854-0.931). The observed probability of mortality in hospital gradually increased from 1.1% at a score of 0 to 30.3% at a score of 5 and 100% at a score of 8.

Conclusion: The GES scoring model in this study will accurately predict the mortality risk of elderly patients with acute abdomen, optimize the allocation of medical resources, and standardize the assessment of patients' conditions based on scientific criteria. Further prospective multicenter trials are needed to externally validate the model developed.

查看原文本刊更多论文

老年急诊普外科术前预测模型的建立与验证。

目的：本研究的目的是建立一个评估老年急诊普外科患者术前术后死亡率的评分系统。方法：回顾性分析接受急诊外科手术的老年急诊普通外科（EGS）患者的数据，建立评分系统。结果：共入组1500例患者，平均年龄69.8岁。通过模型的开发和比较，我们最终得出了一个称为GES（老年急诊外科评分）的评分量表。死亡率的c统计值为0.892 （95% CI 0.854-0.931）。观察到的住院死亡概率从0分时的1.1%逐渐增加到5分时的30.3%和8分时的100%。结论：本研究建立的GES评分模型能够准确预测老年急腹症患者的死亡风险，优化医疗资源配置，以科学的标准规范对患者病情的评估。需要进一步的前瞻性多中心试验来外部验证所开发的模型。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery 医学-外科

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

8.70%

发文量

342

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Langenbeck''s Archives of Surgery aims to publish the best results in the field of clinical surgery and basic surgical research. The main focus is on providing the highest level of clinical research and clinically relevant basic research. The journal, published exclusively in English, will provide an international discussion forum for the controlled results of clinical surgery. The majority of published contributions will be original articles reporting on clinical data from general and visceral surgery, while endocrine surgery will also be covered. Papers on basic surgical principles from the fields of traumatology, vascular and thoracic surgery are also welcome. Evidence-based medicine is an important criterion for the acceptance of papers.