Current and projected incidence rates of pancreatic cancer in 43 countries: an analysis of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database.

IF 3.3 Q2 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

BMJ Open Gastroenterology Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI:10.1136/bmjgast-2024-001544

Songting Shou, Rui Liu, Jie He, Xiaochen Jiang, Fudong Liu, Yi Li, Xiyuan Zhang, Geer En, Zhiqing Pu, Baojin Hua, Bo Pang, Xing Zhang

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Abstract

Objective: The aetiology of pancreatic cancer is complex, and there is limited research on its incidence. We aimed to investigate the incidence trends of pancreatic cancer in 43 countries and predict trends up to 2030.

Methods: The annual incidence of pancreatic cancer was obtained from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database, which comprises 108 cancer registries from 43 countries. Based on available data, we calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100 000 people for 1988-2012. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the number of new cases and incidence rates up to 2030.

Results: From 1988 to 2012, the global incidence rate of pancreatic cancer showed a continuously increasing trend, with the ASR increasing from 5.89 in 1988 to 6.78 in 2012, representing an overall average annual percentage change of 8.45%. This increasing trend is expected to persist in most selected countries, whereas a few countries are projected to exhibit a declining trend by 2030.

Conclusion: It appears that the future global incidence of pancreatic cancer is on the rise, but the rate of increase varies among different countries, with some showing a declining trend.

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43个国家目前和预计的胰腺癌发病率：五大洲癌症发病率数据库分析。

目的：胰腺癌病因复杂，对其发病率的研究有限。我们的目的是调查43个国家胰腺癌的发病率趋势，并预测到2030年的趋势。方法：从五大洲癌症发病率数据库中获得胰腺癌的年发病率，该数据库包括来自43个国家的108个癌症登记处。基于现有数据，我们计算了1988-2012年每10万人的年龄标准化发病率（ASRs）。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测到2030年的新病例数和发病率。结果：1988 - 2012年，全球胰腺癌发病率呈持续上升趋势，ASR从1988年的5.89上升至2012年的6.78，总体年平均变化百分比为8.45%。这一增长趋势预计将在大多数选定的国家持续下去，而少数国家预计到2030年将呈现下降趋势。结论：未来全球胰腺癌发病率呈上升趋势，但不同国家的发病率增长速度不同，有些国家有下降趋势。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

BMJ Open Gastroenterology GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY-

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

3.20%

发文量

审稿时长

2 weeks

期刊介绍： BMJ Open Gastroenterology is an online-only, peer-reviewed, open access gastroenterology journal, dedicated to publishing high-quality medical research from all disciplines and therapeutic areas of gastroenterology. It is the open access companion journal of Gut and is co-owned by the British Society of Gastroenterology. The journal publishes all research study types, from study protocols to phase I trials to meta-analyses, including small or specialist studies. Publishing procedures are built around continuous publication, publishing research online as soon as the article is ready.