Unanticipated Behavioral Consequences of On-demand COVID-19 Testing Policy in US States.

IF 1.9 4区医学 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI:10.1017/dmp.2024.344

Leon S Robertson

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives: During the COVID-19 pandemic, free on-demand testing was promoted in the US. This study was undertaken to support or refute the hypothesis that negative SARS-CoV-2 tests led to travel that exposed travelers to the virus in US states.

Methods: Data on daily trips outside households based on cell phone movement were matched by date to negative tests, positive tests, subsequent COVID-19 cases, and deaths lagged at various intervals in 49 US states during the first 16 months of the pandemic. Least-squares regression of weekly trips as a function of prior trips, negative tests, and cases was examined. Cases 10-14 days after negative tests and deaths 20-25 days later as a function of previous trips and positive tests were also assessed by least squares regression.

Results: Increases in negative tests predicted increases in trips but trips declined as cases increased. Changes in trips predicted short-term changes in cases and deaths. The data closely fit the models.

Conclusions: Surges in cases and deaths from COVID-19 were likely a partial result of on-demand testing, without sufficient contact tracing and quarantine, which misled those who tested negative into thinking that it was safe to travel.

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美国各州按需COVID-19检测政策的意外行为后果。

目的：新冠肺炎疫情期间，美国推广免费按需检测。进行这项研究是为了支持或反驳这样一种假设，即SARS-CoV-2阴性检测导致旅行者在美国各州接触该病毒。方法：在大流行的前16个月，美国49个州按日期将基于手机移动的日常外出数据与阴性检测、阳性检测、随后的COVID-19病例和死亡在不同时间间隔进行匹配。最小二乘回归的每周行程作为先前的行程，阴性测试和病例的函数进行了检查。还通过最小二乘回归评估了阴性检测后10-14天的病例和20-25天后的死亡情况，这些情况与以前的旅行和阳性检测结果有关。结果：阴性检测的增加预示着旅行的增加，但旅行随着病例的增加而下降。旅行的变化预示着病例和死亡的短期变化。数据与模型非常吻合。结论：COVID-19病例和死亡人数的激增可能是按需检测的部分结果，没有足够的接触者追踪和隔离，这误导了那些检测呈阴性的人，认为旅行是安全的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

7.40%

发文量

258

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness is the first comprehensive and authoritative journal emphasizing public health preparedness and disaster response for all health care and public health professionals globally. The journal seeks to translate science into practice and integrate medical and public health perspectives. With the events of September 11, the subsequent anthrax attacks, the tsunami in Indonesia, hurricane Katrina, SARS and the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic, all health care and public health professionals must be prepared to respond to emergency situations. In support of these pressing public health needs, Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness is committed to the medical and public health communities who are the stewards of the health and security of citizens worldwide.