College Applications and Enrollment after Operation Varsity Blues

Abstract

Operations Varsity Blues, a high-profile undergraduate admissions scandal exposed in March 2019, involved some of the most elite colleges in the United States. The event charged 33 parents with bribing athletic departments and faking test scores in an effort to obtain admission for their children. This paper analyzes the effects of this scandal on institution-level outcomes, including the number of applicants, enrollment demographics, and financial aid outcomes. Data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System for the years 2017–2021 were utilized, employing entropy balancing to construct a comparable control group, combined with difference-in-differences regressions. The resulting models estimate that the scandal reduced applications by 3% and enrollment of Black students by 0.3%. Furthermore, the number of low-income students who received Pell grants decreased by 100 students, or 0.3%. A limitation of the analysis is the occurrence of the coronavirus-19 pandemic, which coincided partially with the years used as outcomes. The results highlight the level of student sensitivity to public information and speak to how highly-publicized scandals can have a small, yet significant, impact on student decisions at elite colleges. Furthermore, the results imply that college applicants, especially low-income applicants, desire equitable admission systems in higher education institutions.