Development of a Prognostic Model for Stage IV Colorectal Cancer Using Metastatic Patterns.

IF 1.6 4区 医学 Q4 ONCOLOGY
Hidetaka Kawamura, Takahiro Imaizumi, Teppei Miyakawa, Eiichi Nakao, Masanori Katagata, Yukitoshi Todate, Yoshinao Takano, Koji Kono, Michitaka Honda
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background/aim: Metastatic patterns are the most convenient and common prediction models for the prognosis of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer. However, current prediction models do not include the severity of metastases in organs and exclude certain types of metastatic patterns. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model that included several metastatic organs as well as the severity of liver and lung metastases, based on the Japanese Classification of Colorectal, Appendiceal, and Anal Carcinoma: the 3rd English Edition.

Patients and methods: We performed a state-wide cohort study and developed a prediction model using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, utilizing data on patients with stage IV colorectal cancer in hospital-based cancer registries of all nine designated cancer hospitals across Fukushima Prefecture, Japan.

Results: The study included 1,230 patients with stage IV colorectal cancer. The prediction score consisted of the severity of liver and lung metastases, peritoneal dissemination, non-regional lymph node metastases, and other organ metastases (scale: 0-9 on a 10-point scale; divided into a 2-point scale, grade: I-V). The study found that the model had good discrimination properties, with a Harrell's concordance index of 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.66), and the grade was an independent prognostic factor [hazard ratio (HR)=1.83; 95% confidence interval=1.68-2.00; p<0.001].

Conclusion: We created a practical prediction model for stage IV colorectal cancer that can be applied at the time of diagnosis, using only metastatic patterns. Further external validation studies are required to ensure the accuracy of this model.

基于转移模式的四期结直肠癌预后模型的建立
背景/目的:转移模式是IV期结直肠癌患者预后最方便、最常用的预测模型。然而,目前的预测模型不包括器官转移的严重程度,并且排除了某些类型的转移模式。本研究的目的是建立一个预测模型,该模型包括几个转移器官以及肝和肺转移的严重程度,基于日本结直肠癌、阑尾癌和肛门癌分类:第3版英文版。患者和方法:我们进行了一项全州范围的队列研究,并利用日本福岛县所有9家指定癌症医院的医院癌症登记处的IV期结直肠癌患者数据,利用Cox比例风险回归分析建立了预测模型。结果:该研究纳入了1230例IV期结直肠癌患者。预测评分包括肝和肺转移、腹膜播散、非区域淋巴结转移和其他器官转移的严重程度(评分范围:0-9分(10分制);分为2分制,等级:I-V)。研究发现,该模型具有较好的判别性,其Harrell’s一致性指数为0.64(95%置信区间:0.62-0.66),分级是独立的预后因素[危险比(HR)=1.83;95%置信区间=1.68-2.00;结论:我们创建了一个实用的IV期结直肠癌预测模型,该模型可以在诊断时应用,仅使用转移模式。需要进一步的外部验证研究来确保该模型的准确性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Anticancer research
Anticancer research 医学-肿瘤学
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
10.00%
发文量
566
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: ANTICANCER RESEARCH is an independent international peer-reviewed journal devoted to the rapid publication of high quality original articles and reviews on all aspects of experimental and clinical oncology. Prompt evaluation of all submitted articles in confidence and rapid publication within 1-2 months of acceptance are guaranteed. ANTICANCER RESEARCH was established in 1981 and is published monthly (bimonthly until the end of 2008). Each annual volume contains twelve issues and index. Each issue may be divided into three parts (A: Reviews, B: Experimental studies, and C: Clinical and Epidemiological studies). Special issues, presenting the proceedings of meetings or groups of papers on topics of significant progress, will also be included in each volume. There is no limitation to the number of pages per issue.
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