Global, regional, and national temporal trends in incidence and mortality for liver cancer due to hepatitis B, 1990-2021: a decomposition and age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Abstract

Objective: This study comprehensively assessed the burden of liver cancer due to hepatitis B (LCHB) from 1990 to 2021, analyzing temporal trends in disease burden and associations with age, period and birth cohort.

Methods: Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of LCHB from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis estimated long-term trends. Age-period-cohort analysis evaluated the independent effects of age, period and cohort. Decomposition analysis elucidated the impact of population growth, aging and epidemiological changes on the burden.

Results: Between 1990 and 2019, the ASIR and ASMR of LCHB witnessed an overall declining trend worldwide, with a notably higher burden in males compared to females. The highest ASIR and ASMR were observed in the middle socio-demographic index (SDI) region, while the lowest were in the low-middle SDI region, with substantial differences across countries. Age-period-cohort analysis revealed an initial increase in risk followed by a decline with advancing age, with the burden primarily affecting the elderly. Decomposition analysis indicated that population growth and aging were the primary drivers of the increase in incident cases and deaths.

Conclusions: From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR and ASMR of LCHB decreased globally. However, population growth and aging contributed to an increase in the absolute numbers of incident cases and deaths. The risk burden increased with age, and favourable period and cohort effects were found in all SDI regions.