A GIS-Based Decision Support System to Study the Impact of Land Use Policies on Water-Related Ecosystem Services—A Case Study of Kozhikode, Kerala

Abstract

This study tries to review the land use policies from the perspective of their impact on the ecosystem and identify significant negative LULC changes and their spatial distribution. The study proposes a decision support system to evaluate land-use policies based on the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of LULC and water-related ecosystem service (WES) changes. By studying the nature of the interaction, changes in the intensity and significance of land use and land cover (LULC) changes with negative WES changes, the implications of the government LULC policies and schemes are assessed. Unlike general LULC-WES studies that focus on the influence of the LULC on WES in a cross-section of time, this study focuses on the changes in the WES due to changes in LULC over the longitudinal section of time at pixel-level resolution. For illustration, one of the fastest urbanizing districts in Kerala, Kozhikode, was selected. From 2003 to 2013, LULC-driven WES changes were highest in municipal areas and the western coast, shifting to midlands and urban centers in 2013–2022. Critical land use changes included the conversion of plantations and farms to built-up areas (2003-2013), and plantations to farms and barren lands (2013–2022). The 2018 Kerala Forest Policy effectively reduced forest conversion, while several agricultural and conservation policies proved ineffective. Key ecological concerns include farm-to-urban conversion and plantation abandonment in urbanizing areas. The study emphasizes the need for targeted, ecologically informed agricultural policies to address these issues and improve WES management. The spatial mapping of LULC changes hotspots that are detrimental to WES and assists urban decision-makers in the formulation of decentralized, participatory, and spatially targeted land use controls.