Modeling the current and future habitat suitability of clematis tangutica (ranunculaceae) on the qinghai-tibet plateau based on an ensemble method

Abstract

This research explores the impact of environmental changes on the distribution of Clematis tangutica, providing theoretical support for its conservation, development, utilization, and early warning monitoring of potential impacts on the ecological environment and local plant communities. An ensemble model in R was used to simulate the suitable habitats of Clematis tangutica on the Tibetan Plateau, integrating climate, topography, and soil variables. Simulations were conducted under three distinct future climate scenarios. The ensemble model exhibited superior performance, as indicated by a true skill statistic of 0.9203, compared to the individual models. Clematis tangutica primarily occupies the eastern Tibetan Plateau, with optimal habitats predominantly located in western Sichuan Province. Regions of inadequate suitability encompass approximately 69.72% of the total area (equivalent to approximately 1743 thousand square kilometers), while highly suitable areas constitute about 5.48% (equivalent to approximately 137 thousand square kilometers). In the future, as the temperature rises on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, overall precipitation is expected to increase, though regional differences will exist, particularly the SSP245 scenario in the 2050s, the centroid of Clematis tangutica distribution is projected to shift northwest, potentially providing favorable conditions. The distribution pattern of Clematis tangutica is strongly influenced by fluctuations in temperature and elevation, as these factors directly affect the plant’s ability to thrive in specific regions. Changes in these variables may alter its future distribution, particularly under climate change scenarios. There is a tendency for the center of mass of Clematis tangutica to migrate northwest under future climatic conditions.