Prognostic prediction for inflammatory breast cancer patients using random survival forest modeling.

Abstract

Background: Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) is an aggressive and rare phenotype of breast cancer, which has a poor prognosis. Thus, it is necessary to establish a novel predictive model of high accuracy for the prognosis of IBC patients.

Methods: Clinical information of 1,230 IBC patients from 2010 to 2020 was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Cox analysis was applied to identify clinicopathological characteristics associated with the overall survival (OS) of IBC patients. Random survival forest (RSF) algorithm was adopted to construct an accurate prognostic prediction model for IBC patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed for survival analyses.

Results: Race, N stage, M stage, molecular subtype, history of chemotherapy and surgery, and response to neoadjuvant therapy were identified as independent predictive factors for the OS of IBC patients. The top five significant variables included surgery, response to neoadjuvant therapy, chemotherapy, breast cancer molecular subtypes, and M stage. The C-index of RSF model was 0.7704 and the area under curve (AUC) values for 1, 3, 5 years in training and validation datasets were 0.879-0.955, suggesting the excellent predictive performance of RSF model. IBC patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group according the risk score of RSF model, and the OS of patients in the low-risk group was significantly longer than those in the high-risk group.

Conclusion: In this study, we constructed a prognosis prediction model for IBC patients through RSF algorithm, which may potentially serve as a useful tool during clinical decision-making.