Risk performance analysis model of escort operation in Arctic waters via an integrated FRAM and Bayesian network

IF 3 2区生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY

Frontiers in Marine Science Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI:10.3389/fmars.2024.1499231

Zhuang Li, Xiaoming Zhu, Shiguan Liao, Kaixian Gao, Shenping Hu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Escort operation is an effective mean to ensure the safety of ship navigation in the Arctic ice area and expand the window period for ship navigation. At the same time, the operation mode between icebreaker and escorted ship may also causes collision accident. In order to scientifically reflect the complex coupling relationship in the escort operation system in Arctic waters and effectively manage the navigation risks. This study proposes to use the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) to identify the risk factors of ship escort operation in Arctic waters, and uses the Bayesian network (BN) method to establish a risk assessment model for escort operation collision accident. The cloud model is used to process the uncertain data information. The proposed method is applied during the actual escort operation of a commercial ship on the Arctic Northeast Passage. According to the model simulation results, the risk performance of ship escort operation in Arctic waters is quantitatively analyzed, and the key risk causes are further analyzed. This study has positive significance for better understanding the risk evolution mechanism of ship escort operation in Arctic ice area and helping relevant management departments to take risk control measures.

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基于FRAM和贝叶斯网络的北极海域护航作业风险绩效分析模型

护航作业是保障北极冰区船舶航行安全、扩大船舶航行窗口期的有效手段。同时，破冰船与护航船之间的作业方式也可能造成碰撞事故。为了科学地反映北极海域护航作业体系中复杂的耦合关系，有效地管理航行风险。本研究提出利用功能共振分析法（FRAM）识别北极海域船舶护航作业的风险因素，并利用贝叶斯网络（BN）方法建立护航作业碰撞事故风险评估模型。采用云模型对不确定数据信息进行处理。将该方法应用于某商船在北极东北航道的实际护航作业中。根据模型仿真结果，定量分析了北极海域船舶护航作业的风险表现，并进一步分析了关键风险原因。本研究对于更好地了解北极冰区船舶护航作业的风险演化机制，帮助相关管理部门采取风险控制措施具有积极意义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Frontiers in Marine Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Aquatic Science

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

16.20%

发文量

2443

审稿时长

14 weeks

期刊介绍： Frontiers in Marine Science publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research that advances our understanding of all aspects of the environment, biology, ecosystem functioning and human interactions with the oceans. Field Chief Editor Carlos M. Duarte at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal is supported by an outstanding Editorial Board of international researchers. This multidisciplinary open-access journal is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, policy makers and the public worldwide. With the human population predicted to reach 9 billion people by 2050, it is clear that traditional land resources will not suffice to meet the demand for food or energy, required to support high-quality livelihoods. As a result, the oceans are emerging as a source of untapped assets, with new innovative industries, such as aquaculture, marine biotechnology, marine energy and deep-sea mining growing rapidly under a new era characterized by rapid growth of a blue, ocean-based economy. The sustainability of the blue economy is closely dependent on our knowledge about how to mitigate the impacts of the multiple pressures on the ocean ecosystem associated with the increased scale and diversification of industry operations in the ocean and global human pressures on the environment. Therefore, Frontiers in Marine Science particularly welcomes the communication of research outcomes addressing ocean-based solutions for the emerging challenges, including improved forecasting and observational capacities, understanding biodiversity and ecosystem problems, locally and globally, effective management strategies to maintain ocean health, and an improved capacity to sustainably derive resources from the oceans.