External validation of the sICOP score for early mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19

Abstract

Background and Objectives

The aim of this study was to externally validate the prognostic score for mechanically ventilated patients with novel coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), the simplified intubated COVID-19 predictive (sICOP) score.

Methods

This was a retrospective, multicenter, observational study conducted using the database registry of patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 at 66 hospitals in Japan. The data of 146 mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients were analyzed.

Results

The areas under the curve (AUC) of the sICOP score for predicting the 28-day mortality and in-hospital mortality were 0.81 (0.73–0.89) and 0.74 (0.65–0.83), respectively. The AUC of the score was statistically significantly higher than that of the SOFA score for 28-day mortality and in-hospital mortality (28-day mortality; 0.82 [0.73–0.90] vs. 0.58 [0.46–0.70], p < 0.001, in-hospital mortality; 0.75 [0.66–0.84] vs 0.55 [0.44–0.66], p < 0.001).

Conclusion

We found that the sICOP score was useful for predicting the 28-day mortality with excellent accuracy in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients in the era prior to the widespread availability of vaccines and effective antivirals. Validation of the score would be needed by using data from recent waves.