Ilana N Ackerman, Alexandra Gorelik, Danielle Berkovic, Rachelle Buchbinder
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Understanding how many people could be living with arthritis in the future is essential for planning health service needs and national health workforce requirements, and for arthritis advocacy and policy development. This study aimed to forecast the size of different populations with arthritis in Australia and associated health system expenditure, up to the year 2040.
Methods: In this population-level forecasting study for Australia, prevalence data for arthritis, osteoarthritis, and rheumatoid arthritis were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2022 National Health Survey. Prevalence rates for juvenile idiopathic arthritis were sourced from 2021 Census data. Overall, age-specific and sex-specific prevalence data were applied to national population projections to forecast arthritis, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, and juvenile idiopathic arthritis populations for 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040. The base case analysis considered medium population growth; sensitivity analyses considered low and high growth scenarios. Health system expenditure data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare were extrapolated to base case projections for the years 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040, and were then inflated to future dollars. To understand the broader context and implications of our projections through the lens of lived experience, an arthritis consumer researcher and members of the Arthritis Australia Consumer Advisory Panel reviewed the arthritis burden estimates.
Findings: With population growth and ageing, 5·39 million (95% CI 5·19-5·58) people are projected to have arthritis in Australia in 2040, representing an increase of 31% from 4·11 million (3·95-4·27) in 2025. By 2040, 3·11 million (2·99-3·23) people are expected to have osteoarthritis, 749 000 (652 000-846 000) are expected to have rheumatoid arthritis, and about 8500 children and adolescents are expected to have juvenile idiopathic arthritis. The age-standardised rate of osteoarthritis is forecast to increase for males from 6·28% in 2025 to 7·03% in 2040, and for females from 10·82% to 12·18% over this period. The age-standardised rate of rheumatoid arthritis is forecast to increase for males from 1·56% in 2025 to 1·75% in 2040, and for females from 2·62% in 2025 to 2·94% in 2040. Little change is anticipated in the number of children and adolescents with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (estimated at 8500 individuals in 2040). Based on current spending levels of AU$2100 per person with osteoarthritis and $1918 per person with rheumatoid arthritis, annual health system expenditure for osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis is conservatively forecast to exceed AU$11·92 billion by 2040.
Interpretation: Using the latest national-level data, this study has generated contemporary projections of the substantial burden of arthritis (both population size and health-care costs) in Australia. These projections underscore the importance of well-resourced health services that can capably deliver timely, high-value care to a growing number of people with arthritis.
Funding: Arthritis Australia and National Health and Medical Research Council.
期刊介绍：
The Lancet Rheumatology, an independent journal, is dedicated to publishing content relevant to rheumatology specialists worldwide. It focuses on studies that advance clinical practice, challenge existing norms, and advocate for changes in health policy. The journal covers clinical research, particularly clinical trials, expert reviews, and thought-provoking commentary on the diagnosis, classification, management, and prevention of rheumatic diseases, including arthritis, musculoskeletal disorders, connective tissue diseases, and immune system disorders. Additionally, it publishes high-quality translational studies supported by robust clinical data, prioritizing those that identify potential new therapeutic targets, advance precision medicine efforts, or directly contribute to future clinical trials.
With its strong clinical orientation, The Lancet Rheumatology serves as an independent voice for the rheumatology community, advocating strongly for the enhancement of patients' lives affected by rheumatic diseases worldwide.
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