Estimated Reduction in Health Care Spending Associated With Weight Loss in Adults.

Abstract

Importance: Recent data from federal surveys show that more than 70% of adults have either overweight or obesity. Overweight and obesity are associated with several expensive chronic conditions, such as type 2 diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. The prevalence of chronic disease is a key driver of rising health care spending among employers and the Medicare program.

Objective: To estimate health care spending among adults with overweight or obesity and have employer-sponsored insurance or Medicare and examine the association of higher and lower body mass index (BMI).

Design, setting, and participants: This cross-sectional study included privately insured adults and adult Medicare beneficiaries with a BMI of 25 and higher. Data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Household Component were used to tabulate total annual health care spending. Data were analyzed from April 1 to June 20, 2024.

Main outcomes and measures: The primary intended measures were total annual health care spending, controlling for patient demographics, income, education, and BMI. The baseline health care spending as a percentage reduction in BMI. An instrumental variable regression model with estimated total spending at various levels of BMI was used.

Results: This study included 3774 adults who were insured with Medicare (mean [SD] age, 63.1 [11.1] years; mean [SD] percentage female, 50.4% [49.7%]; mean [SD] percentage non-Hispanic Black adults, 17.4% [37.7%]; mean [SD] percentage non-Hispanic White adults, 61.3% [48.4%]). The study also included 13 435 adults who had employer-sponsored insurance (mean [SD] age, 46.3 [6.9] years; mean [SD] percentage female, 47.6% [48.9%]; mean [SD] percentage non-Hispanic Black adults, 11.1% [30.7%]; mean [SD] percentage non-Hispanic White adults, 73.1% [43.4%]). Overall, adults with employer-sponsored insurance with a weight loss of 5% were estimated to spend a mean of $670 (95% CI, $654-$686) less on health care (8% less), and those with a weight loss of 25% spent an estimated mean of $2849 (95% CI, $2783-$2916) less on health care (34% less). Among adults with Medicare who had 1 or more comorbid conditions, a 5% weight loss was estimated to reduce spending by $1262 (95% CI, $1217-$1306) (7% less) and a 25% weight loss was estimated to reduce health care spending by a mean of $5442 (95% CI, $5254-$5629) (31% less).

Conclusions and relevance: In this cross-sectional study, projected annual savings from weight loss among US adults with obesity were substantial for both Medicare and employer-based insurance.