{"title":"The Growth of Illicit Drug Use and Its Effects on Murder Rates.","authors":"Sujeong Park","doi":"10.1002/hec.4919","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>After years of reductions in the rate of murder in the United States, the national murder rate has increased since 2015. The causes of this trend are generally unknown, though there is some evidence related to narcotic drugs. Arrests related to heroin and cocaine had been stable between 2010 and 2014 before a sudden increase in 2015. Likewise, the number of murders related to narcotic drugs has increased since 2013, with a jump in 2015. Increased rates of these crimes parallel recent dramatic growth in overdoses involving heroin. However, the causal relationship between the recent opioid crisis and the rise in murder rates is missing from the literature. I used OxyContin reformulation as an exogenous shock to illicit markets. OxyContin reformulation led some people who misused OxyContin to switch to illicit opioids. Previous work has shown that areas with higher rates of OxyContin misuse experienced faster growth in heroin overdoses post-reformulation. I tested whether this growth in illicit drug use caused an increase in crime. After reformulation, I find significantly greater relative increases in murder rates in states with high pre-reformulation rates of OxyContin misuse. The results support a causal link between the opioid epidemic and crime.</p>","PeriodicalId":12847,"journal":{"name":"Health economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Health economics","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4919","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
After years of reductions in the rate of murder in the United States, the national murder rate has increased since 2015. The causes of this trend are generally unknown, though there is some evidence related to narcotic drugs. Arrests related to heroin and cocaine had been stable between 2010 and 2014 before a sudden increase in 2015. Likewise, the number of murders related to narcotic drugs has increased since 2013, with a jump in 2015. Increased rates of these crimes parallel recent dramatic growth in overdoses involving heroin. However, the causal relationship between the recent opioid crisis and the rise in murder rates is missing from the literature. I used OxyContin reformulation as an exogenous shock to illicit markets. OxyContin reformulation led some people who misused OxyContin to switch to illicit opioids. Previous work has shown that areas with higher rates of OxyContin misuse experienced faster growth in heroin overdoses post-reformulation. I tested whether this growth in illicit drug use caused an increase in crime. After reformulation, I find significantly greater relative increases in murder rates in states with high pre-reformulation rates of OxyContin misuse. The results support a causal link between the opioid epidemic and crime.
期刊介绍:
This Journal publishes articles on all aspects of health economics: theoretical contributions, empirical studies and analyses of health policy from the economic perspective. Its scope includes the determinants of health and its definition and valuation, as well as the demand for and supply of health care; planning and market mechanisms; micro-economic evaluation of individual procedures and treatments; and evaluation of the performance of health care systems.
Contributions should typically be original and innovative. As a rule, the Journal does not include routine applications of cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete choice experiments and costing analyses.
Editorials are regular features, these should be concise and topical. Occasionally commissioned reviews are published and special issues bring together contributions on a single topic. Health Economics Letters facilitate rapid exchange of views on topical issues. Contributions related to problems in both developed and developing countries are welcome.