Multimodal transformer for early alarm prediction

Abstract

Alarms are an essential part of distributed control systems designed to help plant operators keep the processes stable and safe. In reality, however, alarms are often noisy and thus can be easily overlooked. Early alarm prediction can give the operator more time to assess the situation and introduce corrective actions to avoid downtime and negative impact on human safety and environment. Existing studies on alarm prediction typically rely on signals directly coupled with these alarms. However, using more sources of information could benefit early prediction by letting the model learn characteristic patterns in the interactions of signals and events. Meanwhile, multimodal deep learning has recently seen impressive developments. Combination (or fusion) of modalities has been shown to be a key success factor, yet choosing the best fusion method for a given task introduces a new degree of complexity, in addition to existing architectural choices and hyperparameter tuning. This is one of the reasons why real-world problems are still typically tackled with unimodal approaches. To bridge this gap, we introduce a multimodal Transformer model for early alarm prediction based on a combination of recent events and signal data. The model learns the optimal representation of data from multiple fusion strategies automatically. The model is validated on real-world industrial data. We show that our model is capable of predicting alarms with the given horizon and that the proposed multimodal fusion method yields state-of-the-art predictive performance while eliminating the need to choose among conventional fusion techniques, thus reducing tuning costs and training time.