Perceived support for climate policy in Australia: The asymmetrical influence of voting behaviour

Abstract

A comprehensive policy response from wealthy nations is a necessary step to limiting catastrophic climate change. Community attitudes toward policy, and polarisation along political lines, may threaten this response. Using two representative cross-sectional survey studies of Australian voters (N = 2013; N = 3834), we test levels of support for a range of climate policies, levels of partisan polarisation, and whether people misperceive support among other partisans (false polarisation). Importantly, we investigate how perceptions differ across voting groups spanning left-wing, centre-left-wing, centre-right-wing, and right-wing voting orientations. In Study 1, we find support for climate policy across the political spectrum. However, assumed support from others is routinely underestimated, with support estimates decreasing the less socially proximal the group being estimated is. Meanwhile, perceptions of others’ support relates positively to perceptions of policy legitimacy. While policy support is associated with partisanship, in Study 2 we find left-wing voters perceive partisan polarisation to be greater than it actually is (false polarisation), while right-wing voters underestimate actual polarisation. We also find perceived polarisation is associated with higher levels of issue relevance. We discuss our findings with respect to intergroup processes, and recommend that community consensus regarding support for climate policy action be emphasised.