Global climate-driven sea surface temperature and chlorophyll dynamics

IF 3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Marine environmental research Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI:10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106856

Roberto Mario Venegas , David Rivas , Eric Treml

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Herein we study long-term changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL) in order to evaluate possible effects of climate change on the global marine ecosystems. Our approach is to analyze multi-model ensemble-means from global numerical-simulations available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). A 250-year span consisting of the 1850–2014 historical period and the 2015–2099 climate-change projection was considered, where the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2.45 and 5.85 were selected as the projected climate-change scenarios. In the historical period, global linear trends show an SST increasing at 0.0024 °C year-1 and a CHL decreasing at −2.35x10-5 mg m-3 year-1, but by the last years (1985–2014) these changes become more abrupt: SST rising at 0.0146 °C year-1 and CHL declining at −1.49x10-4 mg m-3 year-1. During the intense climate-change scenario (SSP-5.85), SST increases at 0.0341 °C year-1 and CHL decreases at −0.0002 mg m-3 year-1, but in the last years (2070–2099) the warming is stronger (0.045 °C year-1) and the CHL decline is weaker (−0.0001 mg m-3 year-1). Additionally, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and dual Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) analyses on the model-data ensembles show: 1) significant correlations between SST and CHL patterns and climate teleconnection indices, 2) contracting polar and high latitude seascapes, 3) rising SST range (both high and low temperatures), 4) declining CHL in warming tropical seascapes, and 5) global expansion of low CHL levels. On the other hand, recent (2022–2023) global observed-SST anomalies mirror end-of-century projections, with extreme anomalies in tropical and subtropical regions and significant changes in near-polar regions. Thus, our findings emphasize the need to curb fossil fuel emissions in order to avoid irreparable consequences for the marine environment.

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全球气候驱动的海面温度和叶绿素动力学

在本文中，我们研究了全球海面温度（SST）和叶绿素-a 浓度（CHL）的长期变化，以评估气候变化对全球海洋生态系统可能产生的影响。我们的方法是分析通过耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 阶段（CMIP6）获得的全球数值模拟的多模式集合均值。我们考虑了由 1850-2014 年历史时期和 2015-2099 年气候变化预测组成的 250 年跨度，其中共同社会经济路径（SSP）2.45 和 5.85 被选为气候变化预测情景。在历史时期，全球线性趋势显示，海温以每年 0.0024 °C 的速度上升，CHL 以每年-2.35x10-5 mg m-3 的速度下降，但到了最后几年（1985-2014 年），这些变化变得更加突然：SST 以每年 0.0146 °C 的速度上升，CHL 以每年-1.49x10-4 mg m-3 的速度下降。在强烈气候变化情景下（SSP-5.85），海温以每年 0.0341 ℃的速度上升，CHL 以每年-0.0002 毫克/立方米的速度下降，但在最后几年（2070-2099 年），升温更强（每年 0.045 ℃），CHL 下降更弱（每年-0.0001 毫克/立方米）。此外，对模型-数据集合进行的经验正交函数（EOF）和双自组织图（SOM）分析表明1) 海温和 CHL 模式与气候远程联系指数之间存在明显的相关性；2) 极地和高纬度海景正在收缩；3) 海温范围（高温和低温）正在扩大；4) 热带海景变暖导致 CHL 下降；5) 全球低 CHL 水平正在扩大。另一方面，近期（2022-2023 年）全球观测到的海温异常反映了本世纪末的预测，热带和亚热带地区出现极端异常，而近极地地区则发生了显著变化。因此，我们的研究结果强调有必要遏制化石燃料的排放，以避免对海洋环境造成不可挽回的后果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Marine environmental research 环境科学-毒理学

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

3.00%

发文量

217

审稿时长

46 days

期刊介绍： Marine Environmental Research publishes original research papers on chemical, physical, and biological interactions in the oceans and coastal waters. The journal serves as a forum for new information on biology, chemistry, and toxicology and syntheses that advance understanding of marine environmental processes. Submission of multidisciplinary studies is encouraged. Studies that utilize experimental approaches to clarify the roles of anthropogenic and natural causes of changes in marine ecosystems are especially welcome, as are those studies that represent new developments of a theoretical or conceptual aspect of marine science. All papers published in this journal are reviewed by qualified peers prior to acceptance and publication. Examples of topics considered to be appropriate for the journal include, but are not limited to, the following: – The extent, persistence, and consequences of change and the recovery from such change in natural marine systems – The biochemical, physiological, and ecological consequences of contaminants to marine organisms and ecosystems – The biogeochemistry of naturally occurring and anthropogenic substances – Models that describe and predict the above processes – Monitoring studies, to the extent that their results provide new information on functional processes – Methodological papers describing improved quantitative techniques for the marine sciences.