K. V. Krushelnitskii, P. N. Shebalin, I. A. Vorobieva, O. V. Selyutskaya, A. O. Antipova
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Abstract—The Gutenberg–Richter law establishes a log-linear relationship between the number of earthquakes that have occurred within some spatiotemporal volume and their magnitude. This similarity property presumably reflects fractal structure of the fault system in which earthquake sources are formed. The Gutenberg–Richter law plays a key role in the problems of seismic hazard and risk assessment. Using the Gutenberg–Richter relationship, we can estimate the average recurrence period of strong earthquakes from the recurrence rate of weaker earthquakes. Since the strongest earthquakes occur infrequently, with intervals of a few hundred years or more, it is not possible to directly assess their recurrence. From indirect geologic and paleoseismic estimates it often seems that strong earthquakes on individual faults occur more frequently than expected in accordance with the Gutenberg–Richter law. Such estimates underlie the hypothesis of the so-called characteristic earthquakes. This hypothesis is in many cases additionally supported by the form of the magnitude–frequency distributions for individual faults, constructed from the data of modern earthquake catalogs. At the same time, an important factor affecting the form of the magnitude–frequency distribution is the choice of the spatial domain in which the distribution is constructed. This paper investigates the influence of this factor and determines the conditions under which the Gutenberg–Richter law is applicable for estimating the recurrence of strong earthquakes.
期刊介绍：
Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth is an international peer reviewed journal that publishes results of original theoretical and experimental research in relevant areas of the physics of the Earth''s interior and applied geophysics. The journal welcomes manuscripts from all countries in the English or Russian language.
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