Seismic Resilience Assessment of Electric Power Distribution Networks

Abstract

Due to climate change and global warming, high-impact, low-probability events such as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes have been observed to occur with increased intensity, posing a serious threat to the operation of critical power system infrastructures. It is imperative to enhance the resilience of the electric power distribution network (PDN) against such events. This paper aims to achieve two objectives: first, to present a new model that characterizes the risk of damage to various PDN components due to an earthquake, and second, to classify the PDN components based on their exposure to seismic stressors. Drawing on current seismology standards, this study establishes a novel fragility curve for more prevalent PDN configurations, including sectionalized single busbar, main and transfer bus, and one-and-a-half breaker arrangements. The proposed methodology accounts for significant uncertainties regarding earthquake magnitude, its epicenter location, individual equipment impacts, and the overall performance of the PDN. As a result, a risk map is produced that outlines the infrastructure at risk in the event of an earthquake. Additionally, a new resilience metric is introduced to quantify the PDN's capacity to withstand seismic forces, enabling the quantification of the PDN's performance during seismic events.