Prediction and reliability analysis of ultimate axial strength for outer circular CFRP-strengthened CFST columns with CTGAN and hybrid MFO-ET model

Abstract

This study develops a novel hybrid machine learning model to estimate the ultimate axial strength and conduct a reliability analysis for outer circular carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP)-strengthened concrete-filled steel tube (CFST) columns. The experimental datasets are collected and enriched using the conditional tabular generative adversarial network (CTGAN). The column length, the steel properties (cross-section diameter, thickness, and yield strength), the CFRP properties (thickness, tensile strength, and elastic modulus), and concrete strength are selected as input variables to develop the Extra Trees (ET) model hybridized with Moth-Flame Optimization (MFO) algorithm for the ultimate axial strength estimation. The results reveal that the CTGAN can efficiently capture the actual data distribution of CFRP-strengthened CFST columns and the developed hybrid MFO-ET model can accurately predict the ultimate axial strength with a high accuracy (R² of 0.985, A10 of 0.867, RMSE of 182.810 kN, and MAE of 124.534 kN) based on the synthetic database. In addition, compared with the best empirical model, the MFO-ET model increases the R² by (6.78% and 13.48%) and A10 by (108.19% and 122.88%) and reduces the RMSE by (68.19% and 66.24%) and MAE by (71.33% and 68.48%) based on real and synthetic databases, respectively. Notably, a reliability analysis is performed to evaluate the safety of the developed MFO-ET model using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Finally, a web application tool is created to make the developed MFO-ET model easier for users to design practical applications.