Modelling for resource risk propagation in dynamic heterogeneous project portfolio network

Abstract

Project portfolio (PP) exists resource risk that propagates because of the relationships among projects arising from resource sharing. While earlier research has highlighted the necessity to control PP resource risk (PPRR) propagation, research that can provide an in-depth analysis of PPRR propagation remains lacking. This paper proposes a PPRR propagation model to bridge this gap by applying the SIR model to PP network (PPN). In the PPRR propagation model, the dynamics and heterogeneity that PPN is characterized are analyzed, following which the dynamic heterogeneous PPN is visualized. Then, the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is improved considering the dynamics and heterogeneity of PPN. Thereafter, the applicability of the PPRR propagation model is verified by a numerical example. This paper enriches theories related to PPRR management and infectious disease model. Meanwhile, utilizing the PPRR propagation model, control measures for PPRR propagation from the perspectives of infection source and immunization strategy can be obtained.