An object-oriented model of the invasion and eradication of Poa annua L. on King George Island, Antarctica

IF 3.5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Halina Galera , Miłosława Sokół , Łukasz Banasiak , Agnieszka Rudak , Maciej Wódkiewicz
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Abstract

We implemented a custom object-oriented model to predict the spread of annual bluegrass population at Point Thomas Oasis and to evaluate potential eradication outcome at different eradication success rates. We modeled unobstructed population growth without eradication, sole elimination of plants and removal of plants together with soil within 10 cm around each specimen. Both eradication scenarios considered removal efficiency of 50–100 %. The population with no elimination campaign applied, was still in the exponential phase of growth after 45 simulated years and almost fulfilled the study area. The removal efficiency of 50 % sufficed to control the species, maintaining the population number at a stable and low level. Once the removal action ceased, the population number increased dramatically. 100 % elimination efficiency for 20 years did not guarantee eradication, as leaving even five or less seeds in the soil could initiate population reestablishment. Soil removal within 10 cm around each plant speeded up the elimination. The predicted duration of eradication process to reach 30 or less seeds in the soil, was around 20 years. The removal of annual bluegrass is obstructed by the soil seed bank. The most important parameter driving eradication success is eradication efficiency. Low removal efficiency simulation indicates that poor management, even for a few years, may be amended if the eradication efficiency increases. Our model is transferable for other potential invasive species at Point Thomas Oasis by changing dispersal and germination parameters. Its transferability for other locations would require changing the modeled space.
南极洲乔治王岛上Poa annua L.入侵和根除的面向对象模型
我们定制了一个面向对象的模型,用于预测托马斯绿洲点一年生蓝草种群的扩散情况,并评估不同根除成功率下的潜在根除结果。我们模拟了在不根除的情况下种群的无阻碍增长、单独清除植物以及将植物连同每个标本周围 10 厘米内的土壤一起清除。两种根除方案都考虑了 50-100% 的根除效率。未采取任何根除措施的种群在模拟的 45 年后仍处于指数增长阶段,几乎占满了研究区域。50% 的清除效率足以控制该物种,使种群数量保持稳定且较低的水平。一旦停止清除行动,种群数量就会急剧增加。持续 20 年的 100% 清除率并不能保证根除效果,因为即使在土壤中留下 5 粒或更少的种子,也会导致种群数量重新增加。清除每株植物周围 10 厘米范围内的土壤可以加快消灭速度。如果土壤中的种子数量达到或少于 30 粒,预计根除过程将持续 20 年左右。一年生蓝草的清除受到土壤种子库的阻碍。推动根除成功的最重要参数是根除效率。低移除效率模拟表明,如果移除效率提高,即使几年的管理不善也可能被修正。通过改变传播和发芽参数,我们的模型可以应用于托马斯绿洲点的其他潜在入侵物种。若要将其应用于其他地点,则需要改变建模空间。
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来源期刊
Global Ecology and Conservation
Global Ecology and Conservation Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
346
审稿时长
83 days
期刊介绍: Global Ecology and Conservation is a peer-reviewed, open-access journal covering all sub-disciplines of ecological and conservation science: from theory to practice, from molecules to ecosystems, from regional to global. The fields covered include: organismal, population, community, and ecosystem ecology; physiological, evolutionary, and behavioral ecology; and conservation science.
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